Projection Models and Forecast Metrics

This article reviews projection models and forecast metrics for Weekly Forecasting.

Projection Models

The projection model determines how the system-generated projection will be calculated. See the full list of projection models and calculation definitions below. The 15-minute projections are then rolled up into the projected sales amount for each hour, day, and week.

Projection Model List

Selecting a Projection Model

The projection models available for a location are set on the Weekly Forecast Settings sidesheet. When a weekly forecast is first created, the sales forecast per 15-minute increment is generated using the default projection model for the location. 

If more than one projection model is available, users can select the projection model to use by clicking on the 'Pencil' icon in the Weekly Forecasting header. 

Manually selecting a projection model will clear any adjustments made to the forecast. 

When the projection model is changed, any adjustments made to the forecast will be discarded and projected sales will be recalculated. 

Customized Projection Model

When a forecast is generated, the selected projection model will determine which days are used to calculate the sales projection. The Review Projection Dates page displays the dates included and excluded from the calculation. Users with the following permission can add or remove projection dates:

• Sales & Cash → Forecasts → Weekly Forecasting → Customize Projection Dates

When projection date adjustments are applied to a forecast week, the projection model for that week is automatically changed to 'Customized'. 

If the projection model is changed back to a system-generated model, the customized projection model is saved. This allows users to switch back to the customized projection model if needed.

Only one customized projection model is saved for a forecast week. Any time that projection date adjustments are applied to the forecast week, the customized projection model will be updated and previous versions will be discarded.

Forecast Metrics

A forecast metric is the sales metric that the forecast is generated for. 

Forecast Metric List

Using Net Sales & Gross Sales Forecasts

Throughout the forecasting process, both net sales and gross sales are calculated and stored. Only one metric is displayed on the Weekly Forecasting page at a time. Switching between the net sales and gross sales on the Weekly Forecasting page will discard any unpublished adjustments and recalculate the sales projections. This ensures that all adjustments are made using the same comparisons and units. 

Publishing the forecast will publish both the net sales and gross sales forecast for use throughout R365. Some areas of R365, such as the Operations Dashboard, will allow the user to select which forecast they are viewing. The Scheduling Calendar will only display the metric used in the published forecast. 

The labor forecast does not take net or gross sales into account during calculation. The labor forecast is calculated using the Labor Matrix and the displayed forecast's sales amounts. It is recommended to configure each location's Labor Matrix thresholds for the default forecast metric. 

Selecting a Forecast Metric

The forecast metrics available for a location are set on the Weekly Forecast Settings sidesheet. When a weekly forecast is first created or is regenerated, the sales forecast per 15-minute increment is generated using the default forecast metric for that location.

If more than one forecast metric is available, users can select the forecast metric to use by clicking on the 'Pencil' icon in the Weekly Forecasting header. 

Manually selecting a forecast metric will clear any adjustments made to the forecast.